Connecting to Kalshi...
NWS Forecast
How It Works
- Fetches real NWS forecast data and live Kalshi market prices for each city.
- Models temperature probabilities (normal distribution) and compares against real market prices to find edge.
- Uses fractional Kelly criterion for position sizing — balancing expected value against risk.
- "Resolve All" simulates settlement by drawing an actual temperature from the forecast distribution.
- Bid/ask spreads shown under market prices. Volume data from Kalshi order book.
Bracket Analysis
| Bracket | Model Prob | Market | Edge | EV / Contract | Signal |
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| Time | City | Bracket | Type | Side | Qty | Entry | Current | Unrealized | Model | Edge | Status | P&L |
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| Time | City | Bracket | Type | Qty | Entry | Exit | Result | P&L | Running P&L |
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